基于卡尔曼滤波的交叉口动态O-D反推模型与算法

交叉口各进出口道之间的实时转向交通量是信号控制系统重要的输入数据,也是难以获得的数据.针对已有模型收敛速度较慢、无法满足实际系统应用需要的问题,提出了基于卡尔曼滤波的状态空间模型,设计了顺序卡尔曼滤波进行求解,并采用裁切和标准化对反推结果进行了修正.实例研究表明,模型和算法具有较高的效率和准确性,能够为实时自适应信号控制系统的开发提供支持.     

An analysis of rail freight operational efficiency and mode share in the British port-hinterland container market

The growth in container shipping poses considerable challenges to efforts to reduce the negative externalities associated with freight transport. There are particular concerns about the impacts of the associated port-hinterland freight flows. Through empirical research, this paper examines trends in the operational efficiency of the British port-hinterland container rail freight market and to assess the impacts of any changes on the overall sustainability of this market. Original survey work conducted in 2007 and 2015 has allowed longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis of the characteristics of this market.The survey findings reveal that rail’s mode share of port container throughput (in TEU) has increased from 14.7% in 2007 to 16.6% in 2015 and it is likely that its share of the associated hinterland activity has also risen. Rail was carrying 25% more TEU by 2015 without an increase in train service provision. Increases in mean train capacity and mean load factor were observed, leading to growth in the mean train load from 44 TEU in 2007 to 55 TEU in 2015. This considerable improvement in operational efficiency is expected to have reduced the negative externalities per unit of transport activity associated with the rail-borne hinterland container flows, though scope is identified for further improvements in sustainability.     

Bike route choice modeling using GPS data without choice sets of paths

Concerned by the nuisances of motorized travel on urban life, policy makers are faced with the challenge of making cycling a more attractive alternative for everyday transportation. Route choice models can help achieve this objective by gaining insights into the trade-offs cyclists make when choosing their routes and by allowing the effect of infrastructure improvements to be analyzed. We estimate a link-based bike route choice model from a sample of GPS observations in the city of Eugene on a network comprising over 40,000 links. The so-called recursive logit (RL) model (Fosgerau et al., 2013) does not require to sample any choice set of paths. We show the advantages of this approach in the context of prediction by focusing on two applications of the model: link flows and accessibility measures. Compared to the path-based approach which requires to generate choice sets, the RL model proves to make significant gains in computational time and to avoid paradoxical accessibility measure results discussed in previous works, e.g. Nassir et al. (2014).     

Numerical Investigations on the Aerodynamic Performance of Wind Turbine：Downwind Versus Upwind Configuration

Although the upwind configuration is more popular in the field of wind energy, the downwind one is a promising type for the offshore wind energy due to its special advantages. Different configurations ...     

Optimization models for differentiating quality of service levels in probabilistic network capacity design problems

This paper develops various chance-constrained models for optimizing the probabilistic network design problem (PNDP), where we differentiate the quality of service (QoS) and measure the related network performance under uncertain demand. The upper level problem of PNDP designs continuous/discrete link capacities shared by multi-commodity flows, and the lower level problem differentiates the corresponding QoS for demand satisfaction, to prioritize customers and/or commodities. We consider PNDP variants that have either fixed flows (formulated at the upper level) or recourse flows (at the lower level) according to different applications. We transform each probabilistic model into a mixed-integer program, and derive polynomial-time algorithms for special cases with single-row chance constraints. The paper formulates benchmark stochastic programming models by either enforcing to meet all demand or penalizing unmet demand via a linear penalty function. We compare different models and approaches by testing randomly generated network instances and an instance built on the Sioux–Falls network. Numerical results demonstrate the computational efficacy of the solution approaches and derive managerial insights.     

Exchange rate and transport cost sensitivities of bilateral freight flows between the US and China

This paper explores the long-run impacts of gross domestic product, exchange rate, and transport costs on bilateral air and ocean freight flows between the US and China. The study employs a cointegration framework by using export and import data over the period of 2003:Q1-2014:Q2. Results show that gross domestic product is the key determinant of bilateral freight flows, indicating that real income of a trading partner is a driving force of the bilateral freight flows between the US and China. In examining the sensitivities of the bilateral trade flows, air freight flows are found to be more responsive to a real income change than ocean freight flows. The bilateral exchange rate is a significant factor affecting the freight flows from China to the US, suggesting that a US dollar appreciation against the Chinese yuan increases the inflows of Chinese commodities to the US. The impacts of the bilateral exchange rate and transport cost are found to vary at industry and commodity levels. These findings support the importance of employing disaggregate data in the bilateral freight flow analysis.     

从互联网用户行为分析入手降低运营成本

本文通过对互联网用户行为进行统计分析，建立数学模型，有效地降低了互联网的应用成本。     

城市快速路匝道合流区与基本路段交通流特征对比

基于快速路实测数据和微观仿真数据,从交通流基本图、交通流状态空间传播、匝道与主线流量关系和车道横向分布特征4个方面对比了匝道合流区与基本路段的交通流特征.结论表明:由于匝道车辆汇入的影响,匝道合流区与基本路段的交通流特征存在较大的差别,在城市快速路的规划、设计、管理和控制中都应该区别对待.     

一种混合评价模型在综合客运枢纽客流组织服务水平评价中的应用

提出将模糊综合评判法与决策中的模糊层次分析法和熵技术结合，建立混合熵权模糊综合评价决策模型，用于城市综合客运枢纽的客流服务水平的评价。此模型兼顾主观偏好和客观实际，结果表明该模型具有合理性与有效性。